The Dawn Of The Next Great Era In Denver Nuggets Franchise History

What was the greatest era in the history of the Denver Nuggets?

There are many ways to slice and dice this question, especially for a team such as Denver which has yet to win a championship in its 52-year franchise history, and often mileage may vary on the answers depending on the ages or stylistic tastes of those providing their answers.

When it comes to the single greatest moment in Nuggets history, many would say nothing beats Denver’s first-round upset of the Seattle SuperSonics in 1995 – the first time ever in the NBA that an eighth seed beat a first seed – which was crystallized in history by the iconic Image of Dikembe Mutombo falling to the court clutching the series-winning rebound.

But the glory of the Mutombo era would be short lived, as he left Denver for the Atlanta Hawks a year later after just two trips to the playoffs. And the fact that what many consider the most triumphant hour of his Nuggets tenure came in a first-round series win says something, perhaps, about how modest a peak that team actually reached.

In fact, Denver’s current incarnation – with Nikola Jokic, Michael Malone and Tim Connelly at the helm of their respective branches of the Nuggets organization – can surpass the postseason accomplishments of the mid-90s squad just by reaching the second round of the playoffs in the upcoming season.

They will have a considerably steeper hill to climb, however, to rival the accomplishments of the most successful eras in team history.

The good news is that they appear poised to do just that.

Viewed through the lens of win-loss percentages, three eras of Nuggets basketball clearly stand out from the rest as the winningest: The “David Thompson and Dan Issel Era” from the 1973 through 1979 seasons, when Denver had a record over .500 six out of seven years; the “Alex English Era” (the early part of which also featured Issel and Thompson) from 1982 through 1990 featuring seven winning seasons out of nine; and the “Carmelo Anthony Era” from 2004 through 2013 with a full, uninterrupted decade above the .500 mark.

Now just in its infancy, the “Nikola Jokic Era” is off to a great start having strung together its first two winning seasons, but the viability of keeping that going may point to the first big hurdle for the current team in attempting to build an era of greatness which rivals those of the past.

In the NBA environment of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, which has seen the shortening of contracts and the increased movement of star players (half of the 2017 NBA All-Stars switched teams in the subsequent 18 months, per SB Nation’s Tom Ziller), the feasibility of achieving the kind of seven-to-ten-year longevity of previous winning eras will certainly be a challenge.

The Nuggets do, however, have on their side several factors which should work in their favor. The chart below centers around another yardstick to measure the greatness of eras: playoff success. It goes without saying that the peaks and valleys mirror those of the chart above, since you have to win to make the postseason cut. The correlation with two other factors, the number of All-Star players and the average age of the team, is also shown.

Nikola Jokic was named not only an All-Star but also an All-NBA First Team player last season, and is now being widely recognized as a top-ten player in the league. Jokic is the key ingredient to the Nuggets’ success and, after signing a maximum five-year, $148 million extension in last year, is guaranteed with Denver through the 2022-23 season.

Jokic’s co-pilot Jamal Murray has not yet made, and will not likely soon make the All-Star team in a Western Conference which is stacked with guards the likes of Steph Curry, James Harden, Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook, although he did receive a respectable number of fan and player votes last season. But the trajectory of his development has him on track to be an All-Star-caliber player even if he doesn’t make the actual cut, and after following in Jokic’s footsteps by signing his own five-year, $170 million maximum extension, he is guaranteed through 2025.

The relationship the chart shows between having multiple All-Star players and making deep and repeated playoff runs may just reinforce what is already conventionally known and obvious, namely that it nearly always takes stars to win. But the fact the correlation is already holding true in these early stages of the current Nuggets era, in conjunction with the long-term deals for Jokic and Murray, bodes well for its sustainability. And that is before even accounting for other players whose ceilings still hold promise for star potential, perhaps most notably 2018 first-round draft pick Michael Porter Jr., who is about to embark on his rookie season after a red shirt year.  

The youth of the Jokic Era Nuggets – they became the eighth-youngest playoff team in NBA history last season – may actually be an advantage for them where it can be a disadvantage for many teams. Postseason success often goes hand-in-hand with teams’ cores being largely comprised of experienced veterans, but since Denver is already ahead of the curve on that front they should be aging into their peak years with a formidable postseason pedigree already tucked under their belts.

If the Nuggets don’t make too many drastic alterations to their roster over the next few seasons, they should be hitting the 26 to 28-year-old average age range of their most successful former eras with a solid foundation of about three playoff runs, which barring unforeseen derailments should position them as well or better for legitimate title contention than any team Denver has previously put on the court.

Further, the roster continuity which the Nuggets are rolling forward with again this season is both a product of and a reinforcing engine for a strong organizational stability and culture. I first created the chart below for an article for Forbes I wrote last year on how Connelly performed a 100% overhaul on Denver’s roster in just four years. Updated for this piece, it now also provides a useful visualization for how high a degree of roster continuity the Nuggets have maintained:

Despite what seems to be the probability that one or more trades could happen by the deadline this season given Denver’s great depth and the lack of availability of minutes for deserving players, the long-term cohesion of the Nuggets’ roster should anchor them with the balance and consistency necessary to keep their momentum moving forward even through potential changes of the kind which can have a destabilizing effect on some teams.

The final factor to cite here (though  more could be raised) which points to the foundation being laid for the Nuggets to continue building on this early success and forge one of the most, and quite possibly the most successful era in franchise history, is the unity of the organization’s vision and culture which is shared by the players, Malone and his coaching staff, Connelly and his front office, and the Kroenke family ownership alike.

Over the past few seasons, it appears that essentially everybody on the team has gotten on the same page and fully bought in. And while that may not last forever, the extent to which it has facilitated both a strong, positive organizational culture and the team’s ability to make moves with all corners on board should not be underestimated.

Of course, nothing is set in stone. This is sports, and these are people. That some things will go wrong, that a few unpredictable curve balls will be thrown Denver’s way, that the sunshine and rainbows of last season will be harder to maintain as the team faces the new challenges that come with reaching greater heights – all of these things are, at least to some degree, inevitable.

But if at least most things go as it seem they are likely to go given how well-positioned the Nuggets appear to be for the future, then perennial deep playoff runs, the growth of Denver’s “promising young core” into a powerhouse veteran squad, and maybe, just maybe, the team’s first NBA championship, will all be on the table.

And if it all comes together, this just might be the dawn of the greatest era in Denver Nuggets history.