Daisy Ridley in 'Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker'
Today is September 20, 2019, meaning we are three months out from the domestic debut, not counting Thursday previews, of Walt Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. As I occasionally do with these “big” releases, I wanted to make pessimistic and optimistic box office projections, wherein I guestimate how the film might do if everything goes wrong or if everything goes right. I did the doom-n-gloom scenario yesterday, and today is the “everything’s coming up Star Wars!” projection. For the record, these are not my official predictions. I advise caution if you plan to use them as yours.
We are making a few assumptions heading into this. First, that J.J. Abrams’ The Rise of Skywalker is about as good, in terms of crowd-pleasing/IMAX-friendly entertainment, as Rogue One, The Last Jedi and The Force Awakens. We are presuming that the online handwringing over The Last Jedi was not indicative of the general populace, which saw the movie once or twice, liked it just fine and then maybe moved on to Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman. And we are assuming that the whole “end of the Skywalker Saga” hook provides at least as much of a bump as we saw for Return of the Jedi and Revenge of the Sith after (respectively) The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones.
The Rise of Skywalker will have two advantages of note over The Last Jedi, regardless of how the new film is received upon release. First, while Last Jedi faced off against two uncommonly huge/leggy Christmas releases, Rise of Skywalker’s most significant competition will debut either a week before (Jumanji: The Next Level) or concurrently (Cats, opening on the same day as Star Wars IX). Yes, Spies in Disguise and Little Women (both opening on Christmas Day) could break out, but that’s presumably not the same level of competition. Second, while The Last Jedi had to wait until the end of its second weekend for Christmas/New Year’s break to begin, Rise of Skywalker, like Force Awakens, will have the kids out of school right on that first Monday.
The whole “the kids are still in school during the first Mon-Thurs frame” factor was a big reason why The Last Jedi’s legs over the first ten days were a little soft (including a significant 69% second-weekend drop), and why its eventual 2.8x weekend-to-final multiplier was relatively low for a big December release. With a Fri-Mon debut that will segue right into the holiday break (for many/most schools), we could see a multiplier closer to I Am Legend (3.32x), Rogue One (3.43x), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (3.53x) or The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (3.6x). Even presuming an opening weekend of around $200 million, a 3.32x multiplier still gets it to $665 million domestic, putting it right between The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame.
Under this scenario, without presuming doom-n-gloom for any of them, Spies in Disguise, Cats and Jumanji 3 play less like four-quadrant event movies but more like “just for kids” installments. We’ve seen that quite a bit this year, with Godzilla: King of the Monsters, The LEGO Movie 2, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Angry Birds 2. Heck, that’s Disney’s big challenge for Frozen II, opening two months from tomorrow, but that’s both unlikely and a conversation for a later post. If Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is crowned the unmitigated event movie of the season, well, that’s the ballgame and then some. Most importantly, overseas audiences care as much about the last Star Wars as they did about The Last Jedi.
That’s the critical variable. If there is going to be a brutal drop between installments, it’ll probably be overseas. We know China doesn’t care (Force Awakens earned $123 million from a $33 million opening day while The Last Jedi earned $42 million total), but what about the rest of the world? As noted yesterday, the fear isn’t so much a Matrix Revolutions-level drop (-51% from Matrix Reloaded) in North America but a Jurassic Park III-level drop (-51% from The Lost World) overseas. So, let’s presume it either stays the course overseas (Desolation of Smaug and Battle of the Five Armies both earned $700 million overseas) or goes up a bit (like Fifty Shades Freed or The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II).
Okay, under this “optimistic” projection, The Rise of Skywalker is well-reviewed and well-received, with plenty of “viral” moments that translates into repeat business at least during the holidays. It gets a finale bump in North America and overseas on par with a Star Wars threequel or The Return of the King (+10% domestic and +21% overseas from Two Towers). It benefits from the uninterrupted holiday blitz and having its biggest competition open right before or concurrently with it allows it to maintain momentum comparative to a conventional December biggie. Its competition, relatively speaking, is received as “just for kids” while it is deemed the unmitigated king of the mountain. Thus, assuming everything goes right and then some, what kind of numbers are we looking at here?
Lost in much of the handwringing two years ago over The Last Jedi was the mere fact that it fell about as much from The Force Awakens (-34% domestic and -37% overseas) as did The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones from Star Wars and The Phantom Menace. If history follows suit, then The Rise of Skywalker will rise around 20-22% domestic and around 35% overseas from The Last Jedi. If that seems extreme, especially on the overseas side, it probably is. Even Endgame, with that 70% jump in China, “only” rose 41% from Infinity War’s $1.369 billion overseas gross. Nonetheless, expect a final gross right between Last Jedi ($620 million domestic and $1.332.5 billion worldwide) and The Force Awakens ($937 million/$2.068 billion).
That over/under 21% domestic jump seems plausible, if only because it’s close to the over/under 29% jumps for Avengers: Endgame ($878 million versus $679 million for Infinity War) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($381 million from $296 million, albeit with a “new” 3-D conversion). A 29% domestic jump for The Rise of Skywalker gets it to $799.8 million domestic, while a 20% jump gets it to $745 million. Both would put it between The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame for the year. The optimistic overseas boost, if we’re trying to be plausible, would probably be close to The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II (+24% from Breaking Dawn Part I) or The Return of the King (+21% from The Two Towers).
A 24% jump would be $884 million overseas. Combined with $800 million domestic, that would be $1.684 billion worldwide, or safely above Jurassic World ($1.671 billion in 2015) and The Lion King (around $1.64 billion). That seems, without getting into “Bigger than Endgame!” hyperbole, like a “realistic” optimistic projection. Since it’s Christmas and there’s room for everyone, a best-case-scenario Rise of Skywalker doesn’t have to mean underperformances for Cats and Jumanji: The Next Level. Considering the crowded marketplace, the variables (VOD, streaming, online viral gifs of your favorite scenes, etc.) that limit repeat viewing and the fact that Star Wars is now merely one massive franchise in a sea of huge franchises, a $1.684 billion cume is not remotely the bar for success.
For reference, the “worst case scenario” guestimate ($770 million) and the “best case scenario” guestimate ($1.684 billion) averages out to around $1.227 billion worldwide. That would also average out to around $614 million domestic, or right between Incredibles 2 ($609 million) and The Last Jedi ($620 million). There’s a lot of wiggle room between Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($1.1 billion) and Jurassic World ($1.671 billion), and yes it’s a little insane that we’re discussing any movie as “still being okay” if it “only” cracks $1.2 billion global, but that’s Star Wars for you, at least one last time before it becomes just another IP in a sea of IP. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens three months from today. Place your bets…
