NFL

NFL hires in the Rooney Rule era

NFL hires in the Rooney Rule era
After a new round of head coaches were hired this offseason, we look at the league’s push for equality and what the data reveal


What the hires tell us

For the NFL’s Black coaches, the hiring landscape is bleak. There’s simply no way to sugarcoat it.

Until the week of Super Bowl LVI, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Mike Tomlin stood alone as the NFL’s only Black head coach. The NFL has never had more than eight Black head coaches in any season.

For a 32-team league whose player workforce is overwhelmingly Black, those numbers look bad. In 2020, players who were Black or African American accounted for 57.5% of players on NFL rosters. The number has been as high as 69.7%.

In place since 2003 for head coaches and expanded in 2009 to include general manager jobs and equivalent front-office positions, the Rooney Rule mandates that an NFL team must interview at least one minority candidate for these jobs. Through the years, the rule has been modified in an attempt to strengthen it.

Despite the rule, however, the numbers indicate the league still isn’t on the right path.

We analyzed all 127 offseason hires since the rule went into effect to find out how well minority coaches have performed and whether they are put in positions to succeed as often as their white counterparts.

Here are four of the metrics we used.

(Note: This does not include the hirings in the 2022 offseason.)

Overall win percentage: The overall win percentage during a coach’s tenure in one position.

Futures wins: The official Las Vegas projection for wins by a team. In this case, a quick indicator of how viable a coaching position is for a new hire, if we focus on first-season totals.

Average +/- wins: This measures the difference in per-season wins compared to the same time span before a coach is hired. If a coach averages eight wins in five seasons, and the previous five seasons the average was seven wins, the value would be +1.0.

Average hot-seat percentage: A metric created by ESPN, this measures the likelihood of a head coach getting fired for going 4-12 based on his resume, historical data and other factors. A way to measure how precarious a coaching tenure really is.

Below are the most relevant questions that can be answered using data. One caveat: The sample size isn’t large enough to be too definitive. Still, the numbers are the best way to evaluate where things stand. There’s no denying that the gap between minority coach hirings (25) and white coach hirings (102) remains wide.

Are minority coaches leading winning teams more often than white coaches?
Tied
Percentage of hires who recorded a winning percentage of .500 or greater during tenure:
Minority
9 of 25

36%

White
37 of 102
36%

Are minority coaches leading losing teams more often than white coaches?
Yes
Percentage of hires who recorded a losing percentage of .250 or less during tenure:
Minority
7 of 25

28%

White
14 of 102
14%

Are minority coaches improving their teams more often than white coaches?
No
Percentage of hires to improve their team by at least one win per season:
Minority
7 of 25

28%

White
38 of 102
37%

Are minority coaches landing on the hot seat more often than white coaches?
Yes
Percentage of hires with a hot-seat rating of 30% or higher:
Minority
12 of 25

48%

White
27 of 102
27%

Are minority coaches securing a playoff berth more often than white coaches?
No
Percentage of hires with at least one playoff appearance:
Minority
10 of 25

40%

White
53 of 102
52%

Are minority coaches staying in a job long term more often than white coaches?
No
Percentage of hires with at least four seasons in one position:
Minority
8 of 25

32%

White
43 of 102
42%

Are minority coaches getting hired a second time more often than white coaches?
Yes
Percentage of hires to get hired twice 
during the Rooney Rule era:
Minority
5 of 25

20%

White
14 of 102
14%

Are minority coaches landing the least viable jobs more often than white coaches?
Yes
Percentage of hires with first-season futures win totals of five or less:
Minority
6 of 25

24%

White
9 of 102
9%


All Rooney Rule era hires

Explore the data for yourself — all of the hires prior to the 2022 offseason are shown below. Sort by the four metrics outlined above (overall win percentage, average +/- wins, futures wins and average hot-seat percentage), and click the filter button to view only the minority hires.

Sort coaches by:

Dennis
Erickson

SF

Mike
Nolan

SF

Mike
Singletary

SF

Jim
Harbaugh

SF

Jim
Tomsula

SF

Chip
Kelly

SF

Kyle
Shanahan

SF

Lovie
Smith

CHI

Marc
Trestman

CHI

John
Fox

CHI

Matt
Nagy

CHI

Marvin
Lewis

CIN

Zac
Taylor

CIN

Mike
Mularkey

BUF

Dick
Jauron

BUF

Chan
Gailey

BUF

Doug
Marrone

BUF

Rex
Ryan

BUF

Sean
McDermott

BUF

Josh
McDaniel

DEN

John
Fox

DEN

Gary
Kubiak

DEN

Vance
Joseph

DEN

Vic
Fangio

DEN

Romeo
Crennel

CLE

Eric
Mangini

CLE

Pat
Shurmur

CLE

Rob
Chudzinski

CLE

Mike
Pettine

CLE

Hue
Jackson

CLE

Freddie
Kitchens

CLE

Kevin
Stefanski

CLE

Raheem
Morris

TB

Greg
Schiano

TB

Lovie
Smith

TB

Dirk
Koetter

TB

Bruce
Arians

TB

Dennis
Green

ARI

Ken
Whisenhunt

ARI

Bruce
Arians

ARI

Steve
Wilks

ARI

Kliff
Kingsbury

ARI

Norv
Turner

LAC

Mike
McCoy

LAC

Anthony
Lynn

LAC

Brandon
Staley

LAC

Herm
Edwards

KC

Todd
Haley

KC

Romeo
Crennel

KC

Andy
Reid

KC

Jim
Caldwell

IND

Chuck
Pagano

IND

Frank
Reich

IND

Joe
Gibbs

WSH

Jim
Zorn

WSH

Mike
Shanahan

WSH

Jay
Gruden

WSH

Ron
Rivera

WSH

Bill
Parcells

DAL

Wade
Phillips

DAL

Jason
Garrett

DAL

Mike
McCarthy

DAL

Nick
Saban

MIA

Cam
Cameron

MIA

Tony
Sparano

MIA

Joe
Philbin

MIA

Adam
Gase

MIA

Brian
Flores

MIA

Chip
Kelly

PHI

Doug
Pederson

PHI

Nick
Sirianni

PHI

Jim
Mora Jr.

ATL

Bobby
Petrino

ATL

Mike
Smith

ATL

Dan
Quinn

ATL

Arthur
Smith

ATL

Tom
Coughlin

NYG

Ben
McAdoo

NYG

Pat
Shurmur

NYG

Joe
Judge

NYG

Jack
Del Rio

JAX

Mike
Mularkey

JAX

Gus
Bradley

JAX

Doug
Marrone

JAX

Urban
Meyer

JAX

Eric
Mangini

NYJ

Rex
Ryan

NYJ

Todd
Bowles

NYJ

Robert
Saleh

NYJ

Steve
Mariucci

DET

Rod
Marinelli

DET

Jim
Schwartz

DET

Jim
Caldwell

DET

Matt
Patricia

DET

Dan
Campbell

DET

Mike
McCarthy

GB

Matt
LaFleur

GB

Ron
Rivera

CAR

Matt
Rhule

CAR

Norv
Turner

LVR

Art
Shell

LVR

Lane
Kiffin

LVR

Tom
Cable

LVR

Hue
Jackson

LVR

Dennis
Allen

LVR

Jack
Del Rio

LVR

Jon
Gruden

LVR

Scott
Linehan

LAR

Jim
Haslett

LAR

Steve
Spagnuolo

LAR

Jeff
Fisher

LAR

Sean
McVay

LAR

John
Harbaugh

BAL

Sean
Payton

NO

Jim
Mora Jr.

SEA

Pete
Carroll

SEA

Mike
Tomlin

PIT

Gary
Kubiak

HOU

Bill
O’Brien

HOU

David
Culley

HOU

Mike
Munchak

TEN

Ken
Whisenhunt

TEN

Mike
Mularkey

TEN

Mike
Vrabel

TEN

Brad
Childress

MIN

Leslie
Frazier

MIN

Mike
Zimmer

MIN


Who’s next?

According to the data, white hires are more than twice as likely to be offensive coordinators (35% of white hires compared with 16% of minority ones), while minority hires are almost twice as likely to be defensive coordinators (44% compared with 23%).

Who are the assistants worth watching? Andscape’s Jason Reid, who has written a series of stories about the Rooney Rule, identified the top five most viable candidates below.

Previous jobs of head coach hires, broken down by percentage
MINORITY HIRES
WHITE HIRES

Offensive
coordinator
16%

35%

Defensive
coordinator
44%

23%

NFL/CFL
head coach
12%

16%

College
coach
4%

13%

Offensive
assistant
12%

9%

Defensive
assistant
12%

5%

Todd Bowles
Defensive coordinator, Bucs

Bowles’ sound defensive game plan helped Tampa Bay rout the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV. During four seasons (2015-18) as the New York Jets’ head coach, Bowles went 24-40. But after his strong work with the Buccaneers, Bowles has proven he’s ready to lead another team.

Leslie Frazier
Defensive coordinator, Bills

He directed a defense that limited Buffalo’s opponents to league-leading averages of 272.8 total yards, 163.0 passing yards and 17.0 points. While serving as the Minnesota Vikings’ head coach for three seasons, Frazier led the team to one playoff appearance. He has helped the Bills win consecutive division titles.

Byron Leftwich
Offensive coordinator, Bucs

Like Bowles, Leftwich, a former NFL quarterback, played a key role in the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl LV win. The Jacksonville Jaguars, which drafted Leftwich seventh overall in the 2003 NFL draft, considered him for their vacancy, which was filled by Doug Pederson in early February.

Raheem Morris
Defensive coordinator, Rams

He devised a strategy that resulted in Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow being sacked seven times during the Rams’ 23-20 victory in Super Bowl LVI. Fired after going 17-31 in three seasons (2009-11) leading Tampa Bay, Morris hopes to reach the top rung of the coaching ladder again soon.

DeMeco Ryans
Defensive coordinator, 49ers

The fast-rising Ryans is the league’s second-youngest defensive playcaller. In his first season leading San Francisco’s defense, the unit ranked among the top 10 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and scoring. A rock star throughout his career, Ryans was a first-team All-Pro linebacker.


Where does NFL go from here?

Former Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who is Afro Latino, recently filed a lawsuit – which seeks class-action status – alleging widespread racial discrimination in the league’s hiring practices. In a memo to all 32 clubs after Flores filed his lawsuit, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell revealed that the league will initiate a comprehensive review of its approach to diversity, equity and inclusion.

At the outset of Super Bowl week, the Dolphins hired former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who is biracial, and the Houston Texans promoted Lovie Smith, who is Black and served as the team’s associate head coach and defensive coordinator this past season. Still, of the nine openings for head coaches at the beginning of the recently completed hiring cycle, seven were filled by white coaches, including the first six.

Over the previous four cycles, there were 27 openings. During that span, three Black men became head coaches. That’s a total of 36 openings over five cycles with only four Black men hired as head coaches.

The Washington Commanders’ Ron Rivera and the New York Jets’ Robert Saleh are the league’s only other minority head coaches.

Repeatedly, Goodell has said the issue of inclusive hiring is important. But the league continues to drop the ball.


Written by Luke Knox and Jason Reid. Additional reporting by Jason Reid. Edited by Ed Guzman. Additional research by Rhoden Fellows. Project managed by Ashley Melfi.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Heather Donahue, Jarret Gabel and Sean Hintz.
Illustrations by Josue Evilla. Photography by Gregory Shamus, Bob Levey, John McCall, Michael Reaves, Cliff Welch, Nick Cammett, Jordon Kelly, Harry How, Michael Zagaris via Getty Images.